New data and detailed analyses reveal a diverse picture of population growth, decline and ageing in Europe

'The Demographic Landscape of EU Territories' moves beyond traditional country-level analysis to explore demographics at different scales: from regions, right down to individual neighbourhoods.

The report assesses the impact of Europe’s diverse ageing and population trends on labour productivity, GDP, access to services, political attitudes and electoral outcomes over the last ten years. It also projects how these trends are likely to develop up to 2050. In doing so, the report provides new insights that can help target efforts to tackle economic inequalities and demographic imbalances.

Main findings

• Youth mobility (particularly 20-24 year olds) has a major impact on demographic change, largely driven by study and work.

• Ageing and depopulation do not occur only in rural or remote areas but also in areas most at risk of depopulation, either urban or rural. Small and middle-sized urban areas may be depopulating because they lack the socio-economic attractiveness of global cities. 

• Residential preferences vary over the course of life, leading to migration that is also shaping demographic trends. The analysis suggests that young people generally move to urban areas for work or studies, families tend to prioritise affordable living spaces on the peripheries of urban areas, and that the elderly prefer to live in rural areas.

• Access to services varies for different ages: urban areas generally provide better access to services like shops and medical facilities than rural areas.

• Age divides are more pronounced than urban-rural divides on political beliefs, but there are clear political divides depending on both age and place of residence when it comes to views on the EU and immigration.

• Widening differences in ageing and depopulation between territories may worsen economic inequalities. The average change in the share of elderly could be 4 percentage points higher in areas experiencing population decrease than in areas where population is increasing.

Background

While policy actions can only partially affect demographic trends, they can help ensure that the effects of the EU’s long-term demographic changes do not have negative repercussions on the economy or on productivity, social cohesion and democratic life.

In June 2020, the European Commission kick-started its work in this area with the Report on the Impact of Demographic Change. It presents the drivers of demographic change and the impact it is having across Europe. This latest report from the Joint Research Centre adds valuable insights on the territorial dimension and the challenges and opportunities presented and feeds into the work on the Long Term Vision for rural areas that the Commission will present in June.

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